Category Archives: Macro Topics

Yapısal Reformlar ve Ekonominin Dönüşümü

Yapısal Reformlar ve Ekonominin Dönüşümü Nedir Yapısal Reformlar? Potansiyel büyüme hızı, bir ekonominin herhangi bir darboğaz yaşamadığı durumlarda elindeki sermaye kaynakları ile büyüme hızını göstermektedir. Sermaye kaynaklarının verimliliği orta vadedeki büyüme hızını belirlemede kritiktir. Politika yapıcılarının görevi kısa vadede dönemsel darboğazları aşmak için para ve maliye politikaları doğru yönde ve doğru sürede kullanmak; uzun vadede […]

Türkiye Ekonomisinde Rekabetçilik Göstergeleri

Türkiye Ekonomisinde Rekabetçilik Göstergeleri Global ekonomide göstergeler uzun zamandır ilk defa olumlu gidiyor: IMF Nisan ayında açıklanan Küresel Ekonomik Görünüm raporunda, toparlanma sürecini teyid etti; ve küresel büyümenin yavaş da olsa toparlanma sinyallerinin arttığını belirtti. Bu olumlu gelişmeye rağmen, önümüzdeki beş yıl gelişmekte olan ülkeler için geçtiğimiz beş yıldan farklı olacak gibi duruyor. Yine IMF’nin […]

Model and Mindset Limits to Turkey’s Growth

Turkey’s average GDP growth rate was 3.1% during the last three years, compared to 2002-2011 average of 5.5%.  GDP/Capita has been hovering around 10,000 dollar since 2010, fuelling the discussions whether Turkey has been stuck in middle-income trap.  More importantly, the next two years growth estimates are not signalling an improvement over the last three […]

Doing Business in MENA: Turkey Experience

During the last 10 years, share of EU and MENA[1] region exports within Turkey’s total exports stayed almost the same at 70% levels; but the 13% decrease in EU’s share was almost all replaced by exports to the MENA region.  Exports to MENA region acted as a buffer to the decrease in EU exports, especially […]

Guest Post: Diagnostics of Turkey’s Exports at Firm-Level

Along with several other ambitious economic targets, Turkey set a 500 billion USD exports target for the year 2023, the 100th anniversary of the modern Turkish Republic. In policy documents prepared to this end, number of exporters and export destinations are often cited as main dimensions to focus on[1]. However, a cross country comparison reveals […]

How ‘Sustainable’ Are Turkey’s Ratings?

It has been almost a year since Turkey got an upgrade from a rating agency; but the last one-year has been also the most volatile period of the financial markets in Turkey since Lehman crisis.  Gezi protests, the last few months domestic political events as well as the  FED’s tapering have exerted pressure on the […]

What IMF Forecasts Tell Us: More of the Same

In an article dated January 24 in LongViewTurkey (http://longviewturkey.com/turkeys-monetary-policy-from-a-comparative-macroeconomic-data-perspective/) looking  data of 10 emerging economies between 2011-2013, we had arrived at comparative facts regarding Turkey.  Between 2011-2013, Turkey had The worst investment growth performance Mediocre consumption growth performance Outlier performance in ratio of consumption to investment Inflation that remains above EM average Policy rates that […]

Turkey’s Monetary Policy from a Comparative Macroeconomic Data Perspective

Usually, in LongViewTurkey we tend to avoid writing on regular data releases unless they have a long-lasting impact on the economy. MPC decisions by the Central Bank of Turkey is also something that we do not write on a regular basis, because we have been observing that lately discussing CBT’s policies has diminishing returns: Harder […]

Turkey Investment Case: How to Keep it Intact?

Soon after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the first reaction that the emerging markets got was not pretty.  Even though crisis originated in the US markets, rest of the world including emerging markets was largely hit.  Yet, despite all the volatility in 2008 and 1H2009, what the markets call the decoupling […]

Economic Snapshot of Turkey

This article, written in April 2013, was published originally in “Turkey Real Estate 2013” in July 2013… http://turkey-re.com/wp-content/uploads/flipbooks/TRE2013/files/mobile/index.html#22 When I was writing for Turkey Real Estate last year, one of the questions that were discussed in my article was whether it was time for re-balancing in Turkey. 2012 indeed turned out to be a year […]