Category Archives: Growth Indicators

Model and Mindset Limits to Turkey’s Growth

Turkey’s average GDP growth rate was 3.1% during the last three years, compared to 2002-2011 average of 5.5%.  GDP/Capita has been hovering around 10,000 dollar since 2010, fuelling the discussions whether Turkey has been stuck in middle-income trap.  More importantly, the next two years growth estimates are not signalling an improvement over the last three […]

What IMF Forecasts Tell Us: More of the Same

In an article dated January 24 in LongViewTurkey (http://longviewturkey.com/turkeys-monetary-policy-from-a-comparative-macroeconomic-data-perspective/) looking  data of 10 emerging economies between 2011-2013, we had arrived at comparative facts regarding Turkey.  Between 2011-2013, Turkey had The worst investment growth performance Mediocre consumption growth performance Outlier performance in ratio of consumption to investment Inflation that remains above EM average Policy rates that […]

Turkey’s Monetary Policy from a Comparative Macroeconomic Data Perspective

Usually, in LongViewTurkey we tend to avoid writing on regular data releases unless they have a long-lasting impact on the economy. MPC decisions by the Central Bank of Turkey is also something that we do not write on a regular basis, because we have been observing that lately discussing CBT’s policies has diminishing returns: Harder […]

Economic Snapshot of Turkey

This article, written in April 2013, was published originally in “Turkey Real Estate 2013” in July 2013… http://turkey-re.com/wp-content/uploads/flipbooks/TRE2013/files/mobile/index.html#22 When I was writing for Turkey Real Estate last year, one of the questions that were discussed in my article was whether it was time for re-balancing in Turkey. 2012 indeed turned out to be a year […]

The Issue for the Turkish Economy

Even before the Gezi protests started at the end of May, the critical question for the Turkish economy was whether the growth was sustainable. Having grown by an average of 5,5% in the past ten years, Turkey has been giving an average current account deficit of 7,3% in the last three years, raising concerns of […]

Turkey’s Sustainability Issue After the Rating Upgrade – Part II

What Does It Mean for Investments? Turkey’s investment to GDP ratio of around 23% is one of the lowest among its peers and it needs to increase its investment rate with an aim of raising the value added of its domestic production and hence exports. From a growth perspective, Turkey needs an investment ratio of […]

Dichotomy Between Hard and Soft Data

In its recent publications, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has been stating that 1q13 economic activity suggested a marked recovery in domestic demand, stemming from the modest rise in consumption and considerable expansion in investment. Bank also claimed that the recovery is continuing in the second 2q13. Central Bank’s optimistic assessment regarding the pace of […]

IS THE IMPORTANCE OF LABOR STATISTICS RISING IN TURKEY?

Policymakers, especially the Central Banks, generally take into account the price stability while setting policy. Employment and unemployment are only the part of reference set of policy frameworks. But, there is a new noteworthy trend in policymakers’ decision making practices, which was primarily realized by the US Federal Reserve (FED). Labor market conditions and policies […]