Model and Mindset Limits to Turkey’s Growth

Turkey’s average GDP growth rate was 3.1% during the last three years, compared to 2002-2011 average of 5.5%.  GDP/Capita has been hovering around 10,000 dollar since 2010, fuelling the discussions whether Turkey has been stuck in middle-income trap.  More importantly, the next two years growth estimates are not signalling an improvement over the last three […]

Doing Business in MENA: Turkey Experience

During the last 10 years, share of EU and MENA[1] region exports within Turkey’s total exports stayed almost the same at 70% levels; but the 13% decrease in EU’s share was almost all replaced by exports to the MENA region.  Exports to MENA region acted as a buffer to the decrease in EU exports, especially […]

Turkey G20 Presidency at a Year of Sustainable Development

Turkey G20 Presidency at a ‘Year of Sustainable Development[1]’ Turkey is leading the G20 presidency during 2015.  As any other Presidency, Turkey has a focus and its list of priorities with which it wants to lead its term of Presidency. Its focus is ‘inclusive and robust growth’ while formulation standpoints are summarized as 3 I’s: […]

Guest Post: Diagnostics of Turkey’s Exports at Firm-Level

Along with several other ambitious economic targets, Turkey set a 500 billion USD exports target for the year 2023, the 100th anniversary of the modern Turkish Republic. In policy documents prepared to this end, number of exporters and export destinations are often cited as main dimensions to focus on[1]. However, a cross country comparison reveals […]

Leverage Points in Turkish Economy

Last week as I was preparing a speech on Turkish economy, I was reviewing the facts for ‘Turkish macroeconomic story’.  Suddenly I realized that I was putting way too much effort into making my version of the story flow.  With the conventional way of looking into Turkey’s investment case, I should have listed the risks […]

Data Turkey: Institutional Quality

Does Institutional Quality Support Further Income Increase in Turkey? Institutions are often regarded as one of the ingredients of competitiveness and/or growth rate in economic development.  The discussion on the role of institutions in ‘the origins of power, prosperity and poverty’ got popular attention through Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s book, ‘Why Nations Fail’.  The […]

How ‘Sustainable’ Are Turkey’s Ratings?

It has been almost a year since Turkey got an upgrade from a rating agency; but the last one-year has been also the most volatile period of the financial markets in Turkey since Lehman crisis.  Gezi protests, the last few months domestic political events as well as the  FED’s tapering have exerted pressure on the […]

What IMF Forecasts Tell Us: More of the Same

In an article dated January 24 in LongViewTurkey (http://longviewturkey.com/turkeys-monetary-policy-from-a-comparative-macroeconomic-data-perspective/) looking  data of 10 emerging economies between 2011-2013, we had arrived at comparative facts regarding Turkey.  Between 2011-2013, Turkey had The worst investment growth performance Mediocre consumption growth performance Outlier performance in ratio of consumption to investment Inflation that remains above EM average Policy rates that […]

Turkey’s Monetary Policy from a Comparative Macroeconomic Data Perspective

Usually, in LongViewTurkey we tend to avoid writing on regular data releases unless they have a long-lasting impact on the economy. MPC decisions by the Central Bank of Turkey is also something that we do not write on a regular basis, because we have been observing that lately discussing CBT’s policies has diminishing returns: Harder […]

DataTurkey: Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurial Environment When talking about Turkey’s strengths, it is almost imperative that economists talk about the entrepreneurial spirit. It is widely believed that this entrepreneurial spirit helps Turkey to go through hard and volatile times. Yet, these talks barely pass beyond anecdotal evidence. In this post of DataTurkey, we look at international data to question […]

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