Turkey Forecast Revision – October 2013

Revisions: * Despite the financial market volatility in 3q13, we are keeping 2013 GDP forecast at 4.1% as private consumption is rebounding faster than expected; but due to QE tapering, 2014 growth forecast is revised downwards… * TL forecasts are revised downwards both for 2013 and 2014 * Due to TL weakness in 3q13, we […]

Turkey Investment Case: How to Keep it Intact?

Soon after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the first reaction that the emerging markets got was not pretty.  Even though crisis originated in the US markets, rest of the world including emerging markets was largely hit.  Yet, despite all the volatility in 2008 and 1H2009, what the markets call the decoupling […]

Economic Snapshot of Turkey

This article, written in April 2013, was published originally in “Turkey Real Estate 2013” in July 2013… http://turkey-re.com/wp-content/uploads/flipbooks/TRE2013/files/mobile/index.html#22 When I was writing for Turkey Real Estate last year, one of the questions that were discussed in my article was whether it was time for re-balancing in Turkey. 2012 indeed turned out to be a year […]

The Issue for the Turkish Economy

Even before the Gezi protests started at the end of May, the critical question for the Turkish economy was whether the growth was sustainable. Having grown by an average of 5,5% in the past ten years, Turkey has been giving an average current account deficit of 7,3% in the last three years, raising concerns of […]

Turkey’s Sustainability Issue After the Rating Upgrade – Part II

What Does It Mean for Investments? Turkey’s investment to GDP ratio of around 23% is one of the lowest among its peers and it needs to increase its investment rate with an aim of raising the value added of its domestic production and hence exports. From a growth perspective, Turkey needs an investment ratio of […]

Dichotomy Between Hard and Soft Data

In its recent publications, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has been stating that 1q13 economic activity suggested a marked recovery in domestic demand, stemming from the modest rise in consumption and considerable expansion in investment. Bank also claimed that the recovery is continuing in the second 2q13. Central Bank’s optimistic assessment regarding the pace of […]

Observations on IMF’s Turkey Estimates

I have always found the IMF reports on Turkey interesting: With a focus on long-term sustainability, the reports are good reminder of what the financial markets might overlook. Because they draw a solid framework on the problems of the Turkish economy, they help to put things into perspective for the financial and real sector professionals […]

Potential Growth Perspective on Settlement

‘Cautious optimism’ seems to be the most popular word nowadays in Turkey. Now that politicians seem to be closer to allow peace to settle in the South East of Turkey, everybody is trying to understand what kind of changes the Country will go through after 30-year of chaos in the South Eastern Region. The debate […]

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