Blog Archives

What IMF Forecasts Tell Us: More of the Same

In an article dated January 24 in LongViewTurkey (http://longviewturkey.com/turkeys-monetary-policy-from-a-comparative-macroeconomic-data-perspective/) looking  data of 10 emerging economies between 2011-2013, we had arrived at comparative facts regarding Turkey.  Between 2011-2013, Turkey had The worst investment growth performance Mediocre consumption growth performance Outlier performance in ratio of consumption to investment Inflation that remains above EM average Policy rates that […]

Turkey’s Monetary Policy from a Comparative Macroeconomic Data Perspective

Usually, in LongViewTurkey we tend to avoid writing on regular data releases unless they have a long-lasting impact on the economy. MPC decisions by the Central Bank of Turkey is also something that we do not write on a regular basis, because we have been observing that lately discussing CBT’s policies has diminishing returns: Harder […]

DataTurkey: Sustainability

Sustainable Competitiveness* Under the DataTurkey series in LongViewTurkey, we have been posting comparative data of 14 emerging economies (and one developed).  The aim was to focus on long-term development issues of Turkey that the financial markets tend to overlook, in line with the mission statement of the platform.  In addition to governance and gender gap […]

Turkey Forecast Revision – October 2013

Revisions: * Despite the financial market volatility in 3q13, we are keeping 2013 GDP forecast at 4.1% as private consumption is rebounding faster than expected; but due to QE tapering, 2014 growth forecast is revised downwards… * TL forecasts are revised downwards both for 2013 and 2014 * Due to TL weakness in 3q13, we […]

Turkey Investment Case: How to Keep it Intact?

Soon after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the first reaction that the emerging markets got was not pretty.  Even though crisis originated in the US markets, rest of the world including emerging markets was largely hit.  Yet, despite all the volatility in 2008 and 1H2009, what the markets call the decoupling […]

Economic Snapshot of Turkey

This article, written in April 2013, was published originally in “Turkey Real Estate 2013” in July 2013… http://turkey-re.com/wp-content/uploads/flipbooks/TRE2013/files/mobile/index.html#22 When I was writing for Turkey Real Estate last year, one of the questions that were discussed in my article was whether it was time for re-balancing in Turkey. 2012 indeed turned out to be a year […]

The Issue for the Turkish Economy

Even before the Gezi protests started at the end of May, the critical question for the Turkish economy was whether the growth was sustainable. Having grown by an average of 5,5% in the past ten years, Turkey has been giving an average current account deficit of 7,3% in the last three years, raising concerns of […]

Turkey’s Sustainability Issue After the Rating Upgrade – Part II

What Does It Mean for Investments? Turkey’s investment to GDP ratio of around 23% is one of the lowest among its peers and it needs to increase its investment rate with an aim of raising the value added of its domestic production and hence exports. From a growth perspective, Turkey needs an investment ratio of […]